Archive for October, 2005

Forex: Dollar Dips On Data

Thursday, October 27th, 2005

The dollar declined overnight and in morning trading because of weaker than expected economic data. Heading into midday trading, the EURUSD pair was trading at 1.2137, up about 0.5 percent for the session as the USDJPY pair was trading lower at 115.25, down about 0.5 percent. Dollar weakness looked to be attributed to a weaker than expected durable goods orders and new home sales. Orders of durable goods showed a decline of 2.1 percent caused by a decline in the demand for commercial aircraft. The market consensus was estimated at a decline of only 1.5 percent. Additionally, new homes sales in September rose to 1.222 million units up about 2.1 percent from 1.197 million. While the increase shows rebounding from August’s plunge, the figure was still lower than expectations of 1.25 million.

The U.S. equity markets opened lower on the morning. At 11:00 AM ET, the Dow Jones Industrials traded lower at 10,300, down 45 points or 0.44 percent. The NASDAQ showed loses as well, trading at around 2,084, down about 15 points or 0.73 percent. The S&P 500 index slipped about 4 points or 0.35 percent, trading at 1,187. Some notable movers in early morning trading were Exxon Mobile, General Motors Corp, and Verizon. Exxon Mobile shares increased 0.73 percent due to an increase in earnings over the past year. Exxon Mobile reported earnings of 9.92 billion (1.58 per share) for the third quarter, up from 5.68 billion (0.88 per share) in the previous year.

Separately, General Motors shares plunged about 5 percent after the SEC subpoenaed data regarding their accounting practices. GM has denied rumors of the company filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. .

The US bond market gained in overnight and early morning trading as yields on the 10-year dipped 0.04 percent to 4.55 percent. Fears from General Motors and weak economic data provided some relief to the bond market as investors found safety in greenback treasuries.

Locals grab a piece of real estate action

Thursday, October 27th, 2005

Catherine Reagor and Glen Creno
The Arizona Republic
Oct. 27, 2005 12:00 AM

Zareh Tahmassebian began buying homes in metropolitan Phoenix last year. The mortgage banker was living in Las Vegas but was so bullish on Arizona’s real estate market, he decided to move into one of his 15 investment houses here early this year.

The 23-year-old has since sold half of his metro Phoenix homes and pocketed as much as $700,000 in profits. But he is not done speculating on the area’s real estate.

As he cruises the Valley in his 2005 Cadillac Escalade looking for the next hot spots, he has become part of a new trend. Investors continue to snatch up Phoenix homes at a record rate, hoping to cash in on the area’s growth. But now, more of those speculative home buyers are local. advertisement

At least one of every four houses sold in metro Phoenix last month went to an investor, but the number of out-of-state buyers was down. In May, 26 percent of all home buyers were from out of state. That number has been steadily falling and was down to 20 percent in September.

The Valley’s 50 percent run-up in home prices during the past year and a home-builder ban on investor sales have put off some speculators who don’t live here. But not Tahmassebian and other local investors counting on the Valley’s continued growth to keep houses steadily appreciating.

“I still believe in Phoenix. It’s still growing, but home prices aren’t going to go up 30 to 40 percent every single year,” said Tahmassebian, who first bought new homes in the Valley but switched to used homes after builders began limiting purchases by investors. “If you make the right moves, prices are still going to go up. If I get 20 percent, I make money.”

Almost 17 percent of homes sold in September were purchased by someone who declared it an investment on property records, according to the Information Market of Phoenix. That’s up 1 percent from January and almost triple the rate from two years ago.

But not all investors disclose if they plan to rent out a home, which is why housing-market watchers say the number of houses bought by investors is much higher.

Many of the out-of-state buyers purchasing Valley homes are also investors.

“The out-of-state bump-and-run investors who bought new homes and sold them at a profit the minute they were built are gone,” said analyst RL Brown, publisher of the Phoenix Housing Market Letter. “Home builders started limiting those deals early on, and that helped spur buying in the resale market.”

He said more investors now are local long-term buyers and landlords who don’t need to make a profit in 30 days.

Moving on
Tahmassebian began speculating on houses in Southern California a few years ago, before following the housing boom to Las Vegas in 2003. But after home prices jumped 50 percent in Sin City, he sold many of his properties for a hefty profit. Then last year, he began buying in metro Phoenix, betting it was the next city poised for big price run-ups.

It was, thanks to speculators like him, as well as new residents and first-time buyers.

But now that the typical metro Phoenix home costs $263,000, almost $40,000 higher than the national median home price, housing speculators are looking for the next city where low home prices and growth will let them make money fast.

Tahmassebian has begun buying homes in Albuquerque. It, along with Boise, Idaho; Austin and Dallas, is drawing the same investors who bought in metro Phoenix last year.

Many early investors in the Valley bought new homes when subdivisions first opened and prices were at their lowest. By the time the house was built nine to 10 months later, the price had jumped by 20 percent to 30 percent. Many of those investors sold for a profit before the paint was dry on the house.

But early this year, builders, fearing a repeat of Las Vegas’ problems, began limiting, or banning, investor buying in their communities.

Housing investors rolled into the Nevada city in early 2004, many of them from high-cost housing cities in California. They began buying new homes, pushing up prices. Some analysts estimated two out of every four new homes in Las Vegas were being purchased by investors because subdivisions were completed but had few residents.

Pulte Homes slashed some Vegas prices by $100,000, and others cut, too. Investors shifted to the city’s resale housing market, pushing up prices there before flocking to metro Phoenix.

Vegas housing analyst Dennis Smith said greed took over and locals followed out-of-staters into the investment market. That led to a big increase in used-home listings and an evaporation of demand in new subdivisions. Las Vegas home prices climbed 11 percent in the past year, compared with 50 percent the year before.

“When the locals saw what prices were doing, they jumped on the bandwagon,” Smith said about Las Vegas. “When you get that thought process imbedded in the population, you are going to have a run-up in prices. It was a very unrealistic period of time.”

Buy, sell or hold
Metro Phoenix home-price gains are now beginning to slow. After posting 6 percent to 8 percent monthly jumps early this year, the Valley’s median home price climbed only 1.5 percent in both August and September.

Aaron Korges of Phoenix has been investing in Valley homes for the past five years and has bought and sold 20 properties. The owner of Tempe’s Desert Autoplex owns two homes, a townhouse and three residential lots in metro Phoenix and keeps looking for good deals.

“A lot of people are still moving here,” he said. “There will always be a market for affordable houses. They may take longer to sell, but the market is still strong here.”

He doesn’t want to invest in other markets that he can’t see or track as well.

But other housing speculators are moving on. Real estate agents say the recent uptick in Valley home listings shows investors are trying to sell.

Jim Sexton, owner of Phoenix real estate brokerage John Hall & Associates, says his agents are seeing more houses for sale that are vacant and have lockboxes. “That means an absentee seller,” he said.

There were less than 9,000 homes for sale in Maricopa County around April of this year. Less than two weeks ago, the figure was 15,000. Now, Sexton said, there are more than 17,000.

The increase in homes for sale means more opportunities for local buyers and investors. Korges had to bid against many out-of-state investors earlier this year.

Real estate agents say many first-time buyers, who lost out to investors paying cash for properties they hadn’t even seen, may finally have a chance at getting a home now.

But some investors are holding because the number of houses being bought and turned into rentals was near a monthly high in September, reports the Information Market.

Too many rentals in a neighborhood can deter other buyers, reduce home values and lead to blight.

Also, investors who can’t find tenants might sell for a loss, and that could drive down all Valley home values.

Sexton said the easy money is gone in the Phoenix area.

“A lot of people have gone to a cocktail party or two and decided, ‘Sure, I can do this.’ They found houses that needed carpet and paint and made $30,000 in 60 days,” he said.

“That’s not happening anymore.”

Here’s how investment, risk can be defined in real estate

Thursday, October 27th, 2005

By Michelle Singletary

I often receive many real estate-related questions during my regular online chat at washingtonpost.com. Here are some from recent chats I didn’t have time to answer:

Q. We will be selling our house soon and will have $200,000-plus to “invest” for a short time, until our new house is completed. How should we invest the money for one to two months?

A. Here’s what it means to invest, from investorwords .com: “To engage in any activity in which money is put at risk for the purpose of making a profit.” And here’s how this excellent online financial glossary defines risk: “The quantifiable likelihood of loss or less-than-expected returns.”

If you need that $200,000-plus in one to two months, don’t “invest” it. Park it in a savings account or a money market account. In fact, go to www.bankrate.com and look for the best savings rate deals for your money.

Q. As I search for a home loan, my FICO scores are 781, 786 and 793 respectively. Does it help to get them higher or does the benefit of doing so stop paying off once you reach a certain point?

A. With credit scores that high, you are in solidly safe territory for getting the best rates for your home loan. So now that you know this, play the lenders against each other to negotiate the best terms.

Q: I would like to refinance, get cash out, pay myself each month so I can pay the monthly bills and go into real estate full time. Hopefully, by the time the money runs out I’ll be established enough in the real estate business to sustain my living from real estate. Good idea? Bad idea?

A: So let me get this straight. You want to use the equity in your home for income for some undetermined amount of time to start a new career in which you have no experience?

“You might as well roll dice,” said Walter Molony, spokesman for National Association of Realtors. “This strategy is ill-advised.”

Without more details, let’s assume that by getting into the real estate business, you mean you want to sell real estate. Well, join the crowd. Molony said that from 2002 to 2004, there was a 26.6 percent jump in the membership of NAR, which includes most serious full-time real estate professionals.

Unless you’re extraordinarily talented at selling real estate, your income won’t be extraordinary at first. The median income of people in the real estate business for two years or less is $12,850, according to a recent NAR survey. People who have been in the business six to 10 years had an income of $58,700. Professionals with 26 years or more of experience had an income of $92,600.

So let’s say you are talking about real estate investing. It’s still a monumentally bad idea to use your home equity as your sole source of funds for your income and to buy real estate.

“You need to understand cash flow,” Molony said. “What’s going to be your income and expenses on your property? You need good entrepreneurial skills. You need to have six months of reserves in case things don’t work out the way you think it will.”

And you might be joining the real estate craze at its peak, which means you’ll be buying high. “We think for all of 2006 we will see a slowing of price growth in housing prices,” Molony said.

Real estate investing isn’t for everyone. Can you make a living at it? Sure, you can. But you can also lose everything.

5th Ave. rents, highest in the world soar 38%

Thursday, October 27th, 2005

Rents on Fifth Avenue rose 38% during the past year as retailers such as Abercrombie & Fitch competed for space on the world’s most expensive shopping street.
The average rent was $13,993 per square meter a year at the end of June, up from $10,226 a year earlier, Cushman & Wakefield said in a new report.

Abercrombie, a casual-clothing retailer catering mainly to teenagers, is opening a 34,000-square-foot store on the corner of Fifth Avenue and 56th Street.

“The hottest stretch of Fifth Avenue is north of 49th Street,” Gene Spiegelman, executive director of retail services at Cushman & Wakefield in New York, said. “We are seeing luxury brands being joined by the popular fast-fashion brands, all in search of global brand recognition.”

LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA, which has a Fifth Avenue store, and Cie. Financiere Richemont AG are among luxury-goods companies opening new stores as the $162 billion industry rebounds from a slump in the second half of 2003.

The global luxury-goods market will grow about 7% this year, fueled by consumers with more money to spend in the U.S. and Asia, according to a Bain & Co. study.

Also in New York, rents on Madison Avenue and East 57th Street are more expensive than many other streets in Europe.

Madison Avenue has rents of $10,764 and East 57th Street $8,073.

Rents in Causeway Bay in Hong Kong jumped 90% to $11,653, leapfrogging Avenue des Champs-Elysees in Paris as the second-most expensive street.

“A growing number of global brands are vying for limited space on the pavements of the world’s top shopping destination,” said Darren Yates, the head of U.K. market analysis at Cushman & Wakefield who wrote the report.

New Bond Street toppled Oxford Street as London’s most expensive shopping street for the first time in 20 years after rents rose 25% in local currency terms to $6,753 per square meter.

Realtors: Storms Helped Sell Houses

Thursday, October 27th, 2005

The National Association of Realtors reported Tuesday that hurricane refugees from Gulf Coast states bolstered sales of homes to the second-highest level on record in September.

In Florida, there were 33 percent more homes sold last month than in September, 2004. Pensacola—hard-hit by Hurricane Ivan in 2004—has seen a remarkable rebound. Comparing sales in September 2004 and 2005, there was nearly a threefold increase (222 percent) in the number of homes sold in 2005 than in 2004.

Property attracting investors Record spending on commercial real estate expected

Wednesday, October 26th, 2005

Investors will pour a record $200 billion into commercial property in the United States this year, according to a survey presented Tuesday by a real estate services firm at an industry gathering in San Francisco.

Pension funds, private equity firms and foreign investors continue to see real estate as a popular alternative to stocks, bonds and other investment vehicles, even as returns on U.S. real estate are being squeezed by the higher prices paid for buildings, said Bruce Mosler, chief executive of the Cushman & Wakefield services firm.

Over the last five years, Mosler said, the value of the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts index has gained more than 20 percent while the Standard & Poor’s 500 index has lost about 3 percent.

“Capital continues to be reallocated to the real estate market and there is nothing to suggest that the stock market will be less volatile in the near future,” he said.

It’s already been a banner year in San Francisco, the second-most-popular market for big investors after New York City, according to Cushman & Wakefield. More than $4 billion in commercial property sales have closed in the city in 2005.

But Ken Rosen, a UC Berkeley real estate and economics professor, said stocks of publicly traded real estate investment trusts are due for a fall in the next two years because they have become overvalued. Rosen said REIT prices could drop by 20 percent after enjoying big gains during the last five years.

Still, Rosen said, it is clear that huge amounts of capital are chasing real estate, despite rents in San Francisco and other cities that do not justify the prices being paid for office towers. “A lot of money wants to get into real estate and needs to be satisfied,” he said.

The increasing competition to buy investment-grade property means that San Francisco’s Shorenstein Co. has had to change tactics, said company President Glenn Shannon.

“We want to do deals where it’s not just a contest of who can stack the most cash on the table,” Shannon said, adding that Shorenstein has entered into partnerships that it would not have touched just a few years ago.

Those ventures allow Shorenstein to achieve higher yields by offering services such as lending to its partners when they compete with a cash-rich pension fund for total control of a building, Shannon said.

For all the optimism surrounding the market, Rosen questioned whether office vacancy rates in San Francisco would drop to single digits by the end of 2007, as some experts have predicted.

Rosen said San Francisco needs to create 15,000 new jobs to “feel healthy.” Only 8,000 jobs were created in the city last year.

What’s more, Rosen said, a healthy commercial market in San Francisco would mean an 8 percent office vacancy rate and average rents of $50 per square foot. But the office vacancy rate at the end of the third quarter was 16.5 percent and Class A office rents were at $31 per square foot, according to Cushman & Wakefield.

No real estate boom in New Orleans

Wednesday, October 26th, 2005

NEW ORLEANS - Shannon Sharpe, a real estate agent in New Orleans for the past five years, spends her days trying to deal with her flooded house and searching for customers.

Business has been brisk, but since she returned to the city after Hurricane Katrina, it’s all been taking new listings, not selling houses.

“I had six pendings when the hurricane hit,” Sharpe said. “They’re all gone – roof gone, flooding, whatever. Not in any condition to sell.”

With her commissions blown away by Katrina and new buyers hard to find, Sharpe is now spending her nights working as a hostess in a newly reopened restaurant.

A real estate boom was predicted after Katrina, especially for areas of the city that did not flood. With a smaller supply of structurally sound houses and houses that did not stand in flood waters for weeks, some real estate agents predicted 20percent to 30 percent increases and quick sales.

“If anyone can show me data supporting that I’ll be very surprised,” said Mary Ann Casey, who has operated a Re/Max agency in New Orleans for 24 years. “I think if that happens it will be a long time coming.”

The median housing price was $152,600 in the New Orleans metropolitan area during the second quarter of this year – April through June, according to the National Association of Realtors. New quarterly figures for the period affected by the hurricane have not yet been released. With so many agents displaced, there is a problem even gathering information on sales before Katrina.

“Eventually we’ll probably see prices raise a bit,” said

Sylvia Roy, a broker with Prudential Gardner Realtors Inc.’s Uptown office. “But right now there is a lot more supply than demand. Once people start coming back that will change.”

The question is, how many people will be coming back?

September was a record-setting month for his company, said Arthur Sterbcow, president of Latter & Blum, which has offices statewide. Those sales were in areas near New Orleans, not in the city itself, and many of them were fueled by families moving from the city.

Although portions of the city have reopened to residents, more than 100,000 who evacuated have not returned. Many schools are shut down and parents have moved elsewhere to enroll children.

Speculators are locking up some property, planning to close when the agencies that provide title and tax information are again functioning.

Judy Ruch, an agent for Latter & Blum, had no trouble working out a deal for a house in the area near Lake Pontchartrain that was heavily flooded. The house, which would have gone for $270,000 before Katrina, was sold for the price of the 50-foot-wide lot.

“It was a couple from Metairie who always wanted to live in Lake View but couldn’t afford it,” Ruch said.

Mass. home prices fall in September

Wednesday, October 26th, 2005

Decline is the first monthly drop since February as sales slow
By Kimberly Blanton, Globe Staff | October 26, 2005

The median price of a single-family house dropped for the first time in seven months as the pace of home sales weakened across Massachusetts in September, according to the monthly market report yesterday from the Massachusetts Association of Realtors.

The median selling price for a single-family house was $360,000 in September, down 4 percent from $375,000 in August. That was the first monthly price drop since February, though prices were still higher than they were a year ago. The number of single-family home sales that closed in September was 4,464, roughly equal to year-ago sales.

In the state’s growing condominium market, the median sale price also declined, by 6.1 percent, to $270,000 in September from $287,500 in August. But strong sales continued: Buyers purchased 22 percent more condos than a year ago, a much stronger year-over-year increase than in recent months. Year-over-year comparisons of home sales are more valid than month-to-month numbers, real estate analysts say, because sales volume is highly dependent on weather and other seasonal factors.

A fall in housing prices comes at a time when real estate agents, especially in the suburbs, are increasingly reporting that clients who are reluctant to reduce their asking prices are not able to sell their homes in a softening market in which the number of houses on the market has spiked. The data tracked by the realtors association can lag the market by several months, since it includes prices only on sales that have closed, and it can take two to three months between the time a purchase-and-sale agreement is signed and the deal closes.

‘’The past three years have been really good for real estate,” said Jim Dangelo, an agent for Century 21 Travis Realty in Billerica. ‘’Now we’re starting to hit a low period,” he said.

Nationwide, September existing-home sales were flat compared with August, according to the National Association of Realtors, with homes selling at an annual pace of 7.3 million. But existing-home sales in the Northeast held up better than some regions of the country, increasing 0.8 percent last month, second only to the 3.7 percent rise in sales in the South, where Hurricane Katrina sparked sales in the areas that escaped the heaviest damage. Sales in the Midwest and West declined.

Economists and housing analysts blame a slowdown on rising oil prices, which are causing jitters about the US economy, and an uptick in mortgage interest rates. Mortgage rates tracked by Freddie Mac, which buys home loans from financial institutions, have risen above the 6 percent mark for the first time since March. The rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.1 percent last Thursday.

Still, Massachusetts sales volume, which is slightly above a year ago, ‘’shows a pretty strong number to me,” said Maggie Tomkiewicz, president of the Massachusetts Association of Realtors, noting 2004 was a record for sales in Massachusetts. ‘’We’re returning to a more normal market, and we expected that would happen. It may look like it is not a good market but it is a good market, in a normal sense rather than a frenzy.”

Alan Pasnik, an analyst for The Warren Group, a Boston firm that publishes reports on the real estate market, said Massachusetts home prices may have dropped in September, because buyers with children typically push to close on their purchases in August, before the schools open in September.

‘’There’s a premium to getting the sale done earlier,” he said.

Pasnik acknowledged prices have been weakening for months. ‘’That’s not news to anybody,” he said. ‘’There’s more housing inventory, and that’s going to put downward pressure on prices.”

Jason S. Weissman, president of Boston Realty Advisors, a residential and commercial brokerage firm, said he believes that buyers anticipating more price declines are holding off on decisions, and they are able to do so because there are so many properties on the market.

‘’The buying process is very psychological,” he said.

Slowing suburban home sales are, in turn, having an impact on condo sales, he said.

‘’We’re not going to have a banner year,” Weissman said. ‘’Volume will be off in 2005 and 2006 from 2004.”

Listing Information Network reported this week that condo sales in downtown Boston were 3,132 during the first nine months of this year, or 12 percent below record sales during the same time last year.

The report was the first evidence that a slowing housing market was also hitting condo sales in the city, which is in the midst of a condo-building boom.

Condos ‘’are definitely not selling at the pace at they were, and sellers motivated to sell are definitely reducing their price,” Weissman said.

US home resales hold steady, defy expectations of drop

Tuesday, October 25th, 2005

WASHINGTON, Oct 25 (AFP) – US existing home sales held at near-record levels in September amid a surge in some areas affected by Hurricane Katrina, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday.

Total sales held at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 7.28 million units in September, unchanged from August.

That was up 7.2 percent from September 2004 and was second only to a rate of 7.35 million in June of this year.

The report defied economists’ expectations of a cooling of home sales to a level of 7.2 million.

David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist, said activity was supported by spiking home sales in areas surrounding the Hurricane Katrina disaster zone.

“We are now getting some hard data from this region, with spot checks showing sharply higher home sales to residents who were displaced by the hurricane. The sales surge is more than offsetting declines in the disaster zone,” he said.

Florida Panhandle Sees Real Estate Boom

Tuesday, October 25th, 2005

By EVAN PEREZ
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
October 25, 2005; Page A1

EASTPOINT, Fla.—Of the eight hurricanes that battered Florida in the past 14 months, two severely affected this isolated area of the Panhandle—flooding homes, closing schools and badly damaging what had been its economic engine for generations: a string of waterfront oyster-processing plants.

While Hurricane Wilma largely spared the area after making landfall yesterday near Naples, the series of powerful storms has left many beleaguered residents here and across Florida wondering if it was time to abandon hurricane country. But rather than make the region less attractive, the spate of storms is fueling an extraordinary level of new economic development across Florida and the Gulf Coast.

In July, eight properties straddling bay-front Highway 98—one of only two remaining stretches in the area where working fishermen are permitted to offload their catches—were snapped up in a set of rapid-fire deals valued at $19 million. Some properties changed hands twice in a day. Nearby, in a seafood-processing district in the town of Apalachicola called Two Mile, a developer has proposed an even bigger deal to buy storm-wrecked oyster houses with stunning views of a sheltered inlet where ospreys, alligators and tarpon thrive.

The potential buyer, a group led by Colorado developer John Carroll, says the properties, left in shambles from recent storms, would make way for a development valued at more than $100 million, featuring condos, shops and boat slips catering to second-home buyers. Other owners of old seafood businesses, restaurants and mobile-home parks that sustained damage from recent storms have been swarmed by lawyers and real-estate agents representing investors who envision similar high-end projects on what is now prime waterfront land. Alarmed, county commissioners here last week placed a temporary moratorium on any new hotel units, including condos that would be primarily rented as hotel rooms, while planners study the impact on the county’s growth-management plan.

Hurricanes often bring economic growth in their wake, as governments and developers converge to rebuild what the storms wash away. But here along the shores of Apalachicola Bay the series of storms has tipped the balance against the long declining oyster business—and the culture that goes along with it.

The area’s real-estate boom, which is echoing across the Gulf region, has been driven by a combination of factors. Media coverage of the storms introduced the area to a new national group of buyers with pent-up demand for waterfront homes. With land scarce in already-built-up areas, some of these remote locations look cheap by comparison. Meanwhile, owners whose properties were severely damaged and seafood workers looking for work in more vital industries have been leaving the area. Development is also getting a boost from government efforts to provide relief to storm victims in the form of millions of dollars in new infrastructure spending.

“These storms have always been part of living down here,” says Mr. Carroll, 39 years old, who helped build residential developments in Colorado and Kauai before landing in Florida. “If you live…in Atlanta, a relaxed place on the coast—with the Gulf right at your doorstep, and boating and fishing—doesn’t become less valuable because of storms.”

Signs of the Gulf Coast’s long-term economic desirability are already apparent in the destruction zone left by Katrina—stretching in unprecedented scale from New Orleans all the way across coastal Mississippi and Alabama. Hundreds of thousands of refugees still wonder when they will be able to return home. But that hasn’t stopped furious planning and debate on what will be one of the largest simultaneous real-estate development efforts undertaken since European settlers arrived in the region nearly 400 years ago.

In Mississippi, Gov. Haley Barbour asked former Netscape Inc. Chief Executive Jim Barksdale to help coordinate a planning process for the counties of his state that were devastated by Katrina. He also sought help from Andres Duany, the architect behind the pedestrian-friendly New Urbanism school of land-use planning made famous by the town of Seaside, Fla. Mr. Duany this month convened more than a hundred architects and city planners in heavily damaged Biloxi, Miss., to discuss what the rebuilt version of the state should look like.

In New Orleans, real-estate speculators betting on a big comeback once the city’s levee system is upgraded are already prowling deserted streets looking for deals, while multiple reconstruction task forces, created by the governor, the mayor and the city council, jockey for influence over planning the city’s future.

In this working-class stretch of the Florida Panhandle, Hurricane Ivan, which landed near the Alabama-Florida border in September 2004, sent tidal surges that damaged some waterfront seafood-packing houses. Then Dennis, which barreled ashore east of Pensacola in July, sent massive waves on a 185-mile journey that finished off many of the seafood businesses on the Eastpoint waterfront. Yesterday, Wilma caused only a higher than normal tide here as it slammed into the southern end of the state.

But over the past year, sales of existing homes in this section of Florida have surged, outpacing famously hot markets such as Miami in both percentage price increases and volume. Waterfront property remains less expensive here than in South and Central Florida or the Carolinas.

A demolished seafood packing house on the waterfront in Eastpoint, Fla., where a storm surge from Hurricane Dennis has cleared the way for residential and retail development, which oyster fishermen fear could cut off their access to the oyster rich Apalachicola Bay.

To the west, past the condo towers sprouting like awkward beachfront palms in places like Panama City Beach, neighborhoods in more developed areas that were devastated by last year’s Hurricane Ivan and beaten up again by Dennis have been deluged by buyers. These bargain hunters are looking for damaged property either as a way to acquire their dream waterfront property cheap or as speculative investments.

Real-estate agent Debi Freed says some hurricane-wrecked homes near Pensacola have sold two and three times in recent months as investors buy a home, make minor fixes—or none at all—then flip the property at substantial gains from the rapidly appreciating market. In neighborhoods where the hurricane wiped clean prime lots, eager investors are more than ready to ignore the hurricane history.

With such enormous changes under way, though, it may be impossible for the southern states to retain what remains of traditional coastal cultural ways and local economies.

Nowhere along the Gulf Coast are those tensions more clear than they are here on the coast of Apalachicola Bay. For more than 100 years, hurricanes were a big part of why relatively few people called this place home—let alone an ideal vacation spot. It is too hard to reach, too backward for sophisticated city folks, too “natural” with regular cycles of harsh weather and armies of bugs rising from the swamps. Only a local economy relying on the arduous work of harvesting oysters and shrimp endured through the decades, providing work to locals who mostly eked out a defiantly independent, subsistence life.

For over a century, the bay’s 7,000 acres of rich oyster beds dominated life on this triangular cape jutting into the Gulf of Mexico. The languid bay provides a livelihood for the hundreds of men and women who set off at dawn in shallow boats for solitary days of backbreaking work harvesting oysters, an industry that peaked decades ago.

In November 2003, several waterfront seafood-business owners appeared before the Franklin County Commission, which governs several fishing towns including Apalachicola and Eastpoint. Their goal: to loosen zoning restrictions on their properties to allow for development other than seafood-related uses. The owners, most belonging to families that had worked in the industry for generations, came armed with snapshots of nearly a dozen seafood businesses that had been shuttered in recent years. They argued that the zoning rules, which were instituted in the 1980s to protect the seafood industry, were now depressing the value of their properties. Land off-limits to residential development sells at a discount, they said, if it could sell at all.

The meeting was an early sign that land, rather than water, was coming to dominate life here. Today, waterfront lots sell for more than $1 million and some home sites several blocks inland, located in what for years was almost exclusively home to Apalachicola’s poorer African-American residents, are fetching more than $100,000.

Early last spring, months after Hurricane Ivan crashed ashore east of here and with the real-estate market suddenly on fire, the Eastpoint waterfront owners finally got their zoning change. While residential development was still off-limits south of the east-west Highway 98, it will now be allowed in part of the seafood district across the street.

Behind the scenes, Bruce Millender, who comes from an oystering family, was busy orchestrating a deal of his own. In late June, his company, Heritage Coast Properties LLC, closed on several pieces of real estate, including those of fellow owners who showed up at the November 2003 meeting. Then in rapid succession, Mr. Millender’s Heritage Coast sold the same properties to Eastpoint Redevelopment LLC, a company registered in Fayetteville, Ark.

Mr. Millender said in an interview that he remains a partner with Eastpoint Redevelopment that will construct 135 condos across Highway 98 from the bay on a spot that includes several shuttered seafood businesses and trailer parks whose residents are being cleared to make way for the high-end homes.

Harley Allen, owner of one of the last functioning seafood-processing houses on a once-smelly seafront in Apalachicola, is feeling isolated these days. Not only were many nearby seafood businesses destroyed by Dennis’s waves, but other neighbors have been cashing out. The Seafood Reef restaurant across Highway 98 has been sold to investors who plan condos. The Copelands trailer park a few yards down was sold recently to Mr. Carroll, who plans a New Urbanist-style development of houses, shops and a mini-town square for a Saturday farmer’s market.

Mr. Allen has received numerous letters offering to buy him out, but he vows to stay put. “I ain’t selling,” he says dismissively. “I don’t care how much money it is; I’d probably spend it and then I’ll have nothing.”

Still, the sudden surge in development pressure has accelerated the arrival of a day of reckoning for the struggling seafood industry. A bay that boasts of supplying 10% of the oysters in the U.S., and 90% of Florida’s, has seen its iconic industry in a steady descent. The oyster catch fell 35% by weight between 2000 and 2004. Oystermen who made $10 a sack of oysters five years ago, get $11 to $12 today, while their fuel costs have doubled.

Meanwhile, many oystermen have become part-timers, spending more and more time making much better wages doing construction work. Florida’s agriculture department, which regulates the industry, says it sold 714 oyster-harvesting licenses for this year’s season, down nearly 25% from four years ago. Some local seafood dealers quietly are importing cheaper oysters from other areas of the U.S. for frozen packaging that usually ends up in stews.

Meanwhile, the government response to the storms is helping lay the groundwork for the real-estate boom. This summer, during the cleanup from Hurricane Dennis, state road workers were busy moving inland a four-mile scenic stretch of Highway 98, this region’s lifeline. It’s a project pushed by St. Joe Co., Florida’s largest land owner, which has been busy in recent years converting its vast timberland holdings in the region into high-end housing and commercial developments.

St. Joe says it is picking up the cost of moving one stretch of the highway and is pushing the state to relocate dozens of miles of the scenic route to protect it from storm surges. Florida, in a move aimed at helping evacuation, recently built a new causeway bridge across Apalachicola Bay to St. George Island, mostly home to million-dollar beach mansions for visitors from Atlanta, Birmingham, Ala., and other landlocked big cities in the region.

But critics point out that any improvements in hurricane evacuation that comes with the new roads and bridges will likely be offset by increases in the population of vulnerable areas. “This is federally funded urban renewal for resort areas,” says Alan Pierce, a planning department administrator in Franklin County, where Apalachicola is located.

Ms. Freed, the real-estate agent with Weichert Realtors Sunsouth in Pensacola, said that in July she was driving back from Birmingham where she had evacuated during Hurricane Dennis, when she began receiving cellphone calls from prospective buyers. They were looking for “as is” hurricane-damaged properties. Since January, she says, she has sold 30 to 40 hurricane mangled houses.

“It’s like we got on the map with the storms,” Ms. Freed says. “We’re getting investors from Massachusetts, Colorado, Oklahoma—places we never saw buyers from before.” Recently, one such buyer from Oklahoma bought a property for $200,000 and sold it weeks later for $395,000, Ms. Freed says.

Rick Evans, a utilities contractor who lives 20 miles inland, went looking for property after Hurricane Ivan and found one amid the carcasses of houses ripped apart in a neighborhood called Grand Lagoon, west of Pensacola.

He bought a two-story house, with its waterfront walls collapsed by either a wayward boat or wood pilings from nearby docks, for $500,000 and is now making repairs. He plans to move in around Thanksgiving. Recently, he says, he turned down an offer of $1 million from a buyer who didn’t mind that some of the hurricane damage hadn’t yet been repaired.

“I’ve wanted to live on the water for 20 years,” he says.