Archive for November, 2005

Jacksonville real estate market faring better than most of state

Wednesday, November 30th, 2005

Over 1,500 homes were sold in Jacksonville in October, a 38 percent rise from October of last year, according to statistics tracked by the Florida Association of Realtors® (FAR). In Jacksonville, the median price of a home also went up, rising 20 percent to $191,600.

Portions of the rest of the state didn’t fare as well.

Home sales statistics show that home prices continued to rise but the number of sales fell in October, notably in southern areas directly impacted by Hurricane Wilma’s march across the state. Most insurers stopped issuing new policies when the hurricane neared Florida, and, following the storm, some lenders required a reinspection of properties before they would release mortgage money.

Despite storm problems, however, the state’s median home price rose 28 percent in October to $241,000 from $188,800 in October 2004. In September 2005, the median price was $247,800. In October 2000, FAR records show the statewide median sales price was $116,100, resulting in an increase of 107 percent over the five-year-period.

Many real estate agents across the state report gains in housing supply, giving buyers a larger selection of homes to consider. Statewide, a total of 16,029 existing single-family homes sold last month compared to 16,844 homes a year ago for a decrease of 5 percent, according to FAR.

The national median existing-home price in September was $212,000, up 13.4 percent from the previous September’s median price of $187,000, according to the National Association of Realtors® (NAR). In California, the statewide median resales price was $543,980 in September; in New York, the median price was $275,000; and in North Carolina, the average resales price was $208,097.

Interest rates for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.07 percent in October, a slight increase from the average 5.72 percent in October 2004. FAR’s sales figures reflect closings, which typically occur 30 to 90 days after sales contracts are written.

Among the state’s larger markets, the Daytona Beach metropolitan statistical area (MSA) reported that 1,037 homes sold in October for an 18 percent gain over October 2004 home sales of 881. The median home price in Daytona Beach rose 35 percent over the same time period, from $165,000 in October 2004 to $223,300 in October 2005.

Shawn M. Goepfert, president of the Daytona Beach Area Association of Realtors and owner of Ideal Realty of Volusia, says that demand for Daytona-area homes is now catching up with supply.

“We started 2005 off with only about 1,000 residential listings, really robust sales and it taking only about two or three weeks to get a contract,” said Goepfert. “That demand really pushed up our sales price, but in the last 30 days, our inventory has increased to about 3,000 residential listings.”

Other larger MSAs with strong sales and price increases include Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, with 3,735 homes sold for an increase of 4 percent over the same time period. Home prices also rose over the year with the median price up 35 percent to $225,700.

Among the state’s smaller MSAs, Lakeland-Winter Haven posted a 24 percent gain in home sales in October, with 513 homes changing hands compared to 414 homes a year ago. The market’s median sales price rose 50 percent in October to $173,500; last year, it was $115,500.

“I think people have discovered our little secret,” said Peggy Daley, treasurer of the Lakeland Association of Realtors and a Realtor with ImperiaLakes Realty Services in Lakeland. “We’ve got the best of everything. People are moving here in droves from South Florida, plus people from the North keep coming down and quickly realize that we’re centrally located with easy access to Tampa or Orlando — but without the traffic.”

Other smaller MSAs that posted gains in the number of homes sold in October include Ocala, where 482 homes sold for a 15 percent jump; and Tallahassee, where 393 homes sold for an 18 percent increase. The median sales price in those markets also rose. In Ocala, it rose 38 percent to $159,200; and in Tallahassee, 19 percent to $172,700.

Individuals shy away from hedge funds

Wednesday, November 30th, 2005

Private investors are being squeezed out of the industry, which is now dominated by institutions.

The world’s super-rich will soon become marginal financiers in the hedge fund industry as the business they invented is increasingly dominated by large institutional investors, fund managers say.

Billionaires and other individuals rich enough to spend most of their time nurturing their bank accounts are still pouring more money into the industry, which uses sophisticated financial strategies to aim for high and sustained returns.

But inflows from pension funds, endowments and companies are rising faster, reducing private investors to a minority now that the industry, at an estimated $1 trillion of assets, has become sizable enough to swallow institutional investments.

Just five years ago, the overwhelming majority of the then-$500 million of assets managed by hedge funds were from wealthy individuals, said Tanya Styblo Beder, who runs a hedge fund called Tribeca Global Management LLC.

“If we go forward to the year 2010, it’s estimated that 80 percent of the assets under management in the hedge fund will be from institutions. So it’s a big switch that’s happening,” she said. Tribeca manages $1.5 billion for Citigroup.

Hedge funds first became popular as early as the 1960’s, when wealthy individuals used innovative financial tactics like short-selling and leverage to create returns they could not match in conventional trading.

Research confirms that such investors are no longer in the majority, with data provided by IFS, a U.K. financial lobby, showing 44 percent of the assets in the industry came from wealthy people in 2004, down from more than 60 percent in 1996.

The difference is even more telling when looking at inflows into hedge funds—a more precise measure of investor appetite. In 2004, institutions signed up for roughly 30 percent of inlows, a number expected to rise to 50 percent by 2008.

Bull market blues
Less sophisticated private investors may have lost interest in hedge funds, however, as the sector has shown meager returns in the last two years, with bullish equity markets pre-empting the need to hedge against bear markets.

Such high net worth individuals typically still have millions to look after and were often lured into buying alternative investment products by their banks in the heyday of the industry just a few years ago.

“You’ve seen some sub-optimal returns in 2004, some hiccups in 2005. Those clients are now thinking, hold on, that’s not what I was told about hedge funds,” said Jonathan Wauton, who leads Liberty Ermitage, a New Jersey-based hedge fund.

Private investors are typically more fickle than institutions, fund managers say, shifting assets rapidly in search of higher returns.

“Interest in hedge funds certainly from a private client perspective is waning, because they see that there are again decent returns to be made in equity markets,” says Stan Beckers, a hedge fund manager at Barclays Global Investors.

October was the worst month for hedge fund performance since August 1998, Eurohedge said recently, and analysts say funds’ returns in the first half of the year were nearly flat. Last year, the industry failed to match 2003’s solid returns.

Hedge funds ask for hefty fees in return for beating stock market indices on a sustained basis, often charging 2 percent of assets under management a year plus 20 percent of the actual investment result. Sometimes they ask for more.

Institutions will use their financial clout to strong-arm fund managers into charging lower prices, but private investors may well choose to return to equity markets instead, where returns may be similar and fees are much lower.

San Diego Home Prices Drop

Tuesday, November 29th, 2005

The median home price in the San Diego area was down 1.7 percent in October from the previous month, and sales showed a double-digit drop compared to the same period a year ago.

Statewide, the median home price increased 17.2 percent and sales decreased 2.8 percent compared with the same period a year ago, according to the Los Angeles-based California Association of Realtors.

“While California is still experiencing year-over-year double-digit price appreciation, prices are starting to level off compared with the statewide peak reached in August 2005,” said CAR President Vince Malta.

The numbers in the San Diego region indicate a leveling-off trend is under way. The median existing home price stood at $601,850 in October, down from $612,030 the previous month, but up 6.2 percent from $566,740 a year ago.

Sales were down 13.8 percent in October, compared to the previous month, and were down 10.5 percent year-over-year.

In neighboring Orange County, the median home price was $701,520 in October, down 1 percent from September’s $708,840, but up 12.8 percent from $622,090 in October 2004.

Sales in the Orange County area were down 11.8 percent in October compared to the previous month, but were up 5.3 percent from year-ago levels.

In the Los Angeles area, the median home price was $557,730 in October, down from $560,990 in September, but up 21.7 percent from $458,210 in October 2004.

Sales in the Los Angeles area were down 22.5 percent from the previous month, and dropped 2.7 percent from a year ago.

The median price of an existing, single-family detached home in California in October was $538,770, compared to a revised $459,530 median for October 2004, CAR reported.

The October median price was down 1 percent compared with September’s $543,980 median price.

Sarasota Real Estate now a Buyer’s Market

Tuesday, November 29th, 2005

Sarasota Florida (PRWEB) November 23, 2005—The latest news about Sarasota real estate indicates the market in terms of inventory is now favoring the Buyer reports Gary Brey of the Sarasota Group, a Re/Max agent. There are many more homes currently listed for sale in the Sarasota and surrounding areas. Residential listings in the greater Sarasota real estate market have tripled from a year ago. The existing market reflects the fact that demand has eased a bit.

Rather we see a flattening off in the market. Consumers can expect to see a more normal appreciation level. Look for something between 8-12% – still very good. It is impossible to keep gaining 30+% a year as been the case over the last 3 years.

Asking prices are being reduced to reflect this condition. Florida sellers can expect to wait longer for their properties to sell. If they are in a hurry they will have to drop the asking price. In other words, they will have to adjust the asking price to reflect a more moderate gain. They are not going to lose money. The gains will just be more conservative.

There are also signs less investor money will continue to come into the market. Some of this is due to new construction developers trying to “manage the market” by placing restrictions on the Buyer-investor. The investor money seems to be turning back to the stock market as the economy continues to flourish.

In the last 3 years the Sarasota real estate market has adjusted. Sarasota was under priced compared to areas such as Naples, Miami and Boca Raton. The gap has narrowed but Sarasota real estate prices continue to lag behind. Thus, the area remains very attractive price-wise and continues to be a viable option to the more expensive areas in the state.

Brey states, the one looming fact which will continue to drive the Sarasota real estate market is the millions of Baby Boomers retiring in the next 10 years. Florida continues to be the number one retirement destination in the county.

Also this week mortgage rates fell off a bit. This is the first time in many weeks we have seen a drop in all rates across the board. This is very good news for buyers.

Housing market still strong

Tuesday, November 29th, 2005

Prices up 17.2% from last year; sales slow

The state’s residential real estate market continued on a seasonal course in October, with prices continuing to make strong gains and sales softening, a trade group said Monday.
But even if November and December’s buying activity fails to match the last two months of 2004, this should still be a record year for sales and prices, said the California Association of Realtors.

Last month, the median price of a previously owned home increased an annual 17.2 percent to $538,770, while sales fell 2.8 percent from a year ago.

The statewide median, the point at which half the units cost more and half less, peaked in August at $568,730 and has been under that level since.

The median price increased in 97 percent of the 403 cities and communities tracked by the association.

“The median typically hits a peak in the summer and then backs off,” said Robert Kleinhenz, the Los Angeles-based associations deputy chief economist.

Association president Vince Malta noted that prices were leveling off on a monthly basis.

If the entire year’s sales pace matched October’s level, 621,530 single-family properties would change hands.

Kleinhenz notes that, during the year’s first 10 months, sales are running 3.1 percent ahead of 2004 record pace.

Los Angeles County and possibly Ventura County may see sales records this year.

The association’s report showed that:

In Los Angeles County, the median price increased an annual 21.7 percent to $557,730,

and sales slipped 2.7 percent from the year-ago. The year-ago level fell 22.5 percent from September.

In Ventura County, the median price increased 15.9 percent to $677,780, and sales fell 7.2 percent annually and 22.2 percent from October.

The state-wide inventory increased to a four-month supply from a three-month supply a year ago.

The benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate averaged 6.07 percent during October, up from 5.72 percent a year ago. Adjustable rates averaged 4.86 percent, up from 4.02 percent in October 2004.

The median number of days it took to sell a house was 35 days in October, a day longer than a year ago.

John Karevoll, an analyst at market tracker DataQuick Information Systems, said that the market was behaving in a normal fashion and no signs of a collapse were evident.

“The big question again is, are we at the edge of a cliff and the bottom is falling out or are we just at a normal point in a real estate cycle? I think it’s more of the latter,” he said.

Housing prices up, sales down

Monday, November 28th, 2005

Bay Area housing prices rose more than 10 percent in October compared to a year ago, but sales dropped by 10.7 percent, according to a report by the California Association of Realtors released Monday.

The median price of a Bay Area home was $719,660 in October, a 1 percent hike compared to September and 10.6 percent more than October 2004.

Across the state, the median price rose to $538,800, a 17 percent hike compared to last year’s price of $459,530. But the price dropped 1 percent compared to September. Sales for single-family homes also fell statewide by 2.8 percent.

“While California is still experiencing year-over-year double-digit price appreciation, prices are starting to level off compared with the statewide peak reached in August 2005,” said Vince Malta, president of the organization, in a statement. “Regionally, the median price continues to post strong gains, with the High Desert, Riverside/San Bernardino, and San Luis Obispo regions hitting record highs last month.”

Thirty-year fixed mortgage interest rates averaged 6.07 percent during October 2005, compared with 5.72 percent in October 2004, according to Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE). Adjustable mortgage interest rates averaged 4.86 percent in October 2005 compared with 4.02 percent in October 2004.

Florida’s Home Resales’ Median Price Rises 28% in October

Monday, November 28th, 2005

RISMEDIA, Nov. 29 — Home sales statistics from the Florida Association of Realtors® (FAR) show that home prices continued to rise but the number of sales fell in October, notably in southern areas directly impacted by Hurricane Wilma’s march across the state. Most insurers stopped issuing new policies when the hurricane neared Florida, and, following the storm, some lenders required a re-inspection of properties before they would release mortgage money.

Despite storm problems, however, the state’s median home price rose 28 % in October to $241,000 from $188,800 in October 2004. In September 2005, the median price was $247,800. In October 2000, FAR records show the statewide median sales price was $116,100, resulting in an increase of 107 % over the five-year period.
Many Realtors across the state report gains in housing supply, giving buyers a larger selection of homes to consider.

Statewide, a total of 16,029 existing single-family homes sold last month compared to 16,844 homes a year ago for a decrease of 5 %, according to FAR.

The national median existing-home price in September was $212,000, up 13.4 % from the previous September’s median price of $187,000, according to the National Association of Realtors® (NAR). In California, the statewide median resales price was $543,980 in September; in New York, the median price was $275,000; and in North Carolina, the average resales price was $208,097.

Interest rates for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.07 % in October, a slight increase from the average 5.72 % in October 2004. FAR’s sales figures reflect closings, which typically occur 30 to 90 days after sales contracts are written.

Among the state’s larger markets, the Daytona Beach metropolitan statistical area (MSA) reported that 1,037 homes sold in October for an 18 % gain over October 2004 home sales of 881. The median home price in Daytona Beach rose 35 % over the same time period, from $165,000 in October 2004 to $223,300 in October 2005.

Shawn M. Goepfert, president of the Daytona Beach Area Association of Realtors and owner of Ideal Realty of Volusia, says that demand for Daytona- area homes is now catching up with supply. “We started 2005 off with only about 1,000 residential listings, really robust sales and it taking only about two or three weeks to get a contract,” Goepfert says. “That demand really pushed up our sales price, but in the last 30 days, our inventory has increased to about 3,000 residential listings.”

Other larger MSAs with strong sales and price increases include Jacksonville, with 1,504 home sales in October for a 38 % gain over October 2004 sales numbers; and Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, with 3,735 homes sold for an increase of 4 % over the same time period. Prices also rose in both markets over the year. In Jacksonville, the median price rose 20 % to $191,600; in Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater the median price rose 35 % to $225,700.

Among the state’s smaller MSAs, Lakeland-Winter Haven posted a 24 % gain in home sales in October, with 513 homes changing hands compared to 414 homes a year ago. The market’s median sales price rose 50 % in October to $173,500; last year, it was $115,500.

“I think people have discovered our little secret,” says Peggy Daley, treasurer of the Lakeland Association of Realtors and a Realtor with ImperiaLakes Realty Services in Lakeland. “We’ve got the best of everything. People are moving here in droves from South Florida, plus people from the North keep coming down and quickly realize that we’re centrally located with easy access to Tampa or Orlando—but without the traffic.”
Other smaller MSAs that posted gains in the number of homes sold in October include Ocala, where 482 homes sold for a 15 % jump; and Tallahassee, where 393 homes sold for an 18 % increase. The median sales price in those markets also rose. In Ocala, it rose 38 % to $159,200; and in Tallahassee, 19 % to $172,700.

Realtors expect housing prices to stabilize in 2006

Saturday, November 26th, 2005

After defying economics and reason for several years, the housing market in New York’s northern suburbs is coming back to reality.

Prices are stabilizing, properties are taking longer to sell and buyers are exercising increasing caution before they buy. In virtually all areas of Westchester, Putnam and Rockland counties, real estate agents are preparing for a modest cooling of a red-hot growth cycle.

However, they insist there is no reason for panic and stress the market remains healthy. The consensus is that sales and price increases have slowed, but the market is in no danger of collapse.

P. Gilbert Mercurio, chief executive officer of the Westchester County Board of Realtors Inc., described the residential real estate market as still healthy. “There are no burst bubbles, no sudden price or volume deflations in our area’s immediate future. The basics for a sound real estate market are in place,” he said.

Liz Lindsey, manager of the Pelham and Bronxville offices of Houlihan Lawrence, agreed. “Our market is still going strong. Buyers are there, but the homes of their dreams are not. From where I sit, the rumored death of the housing boom is simply the result of too much bubble-bursting hype,” she said.

Real estate professionals predict the housing market in the tri-county area will stabilize in 2006, but remain a driving force in the local economy.

“The market is in transition,” said Kevin Joyce, president of Joyce Realty and a former president of the Rockland County Board of Realtors. “It is regaining some balance, and returning to more normal conditions.”

For the past few years, the residential housing market in the metro area has operated without regard to benchmarks like supply and demand. Although economic theory maintains that increased supply leads to lower prices, that wasn’t the case in the housing market.

“Prices are ridiculous,” complained Lauren Laffer of Congers. She and her husband Alan are considering purchasing a larger home, but have been unable to find what they want for a price they want to pay.

“We started out looking in Westchester but ended up in Rockland because the cost was lower. Now we’re looking for something larger, and would still like to be in Westchester. But we’re waiting for prices to level off.”

So far, it has been a frustrating experience. Slight increases in the inventory of homes for sale have created slightly greater increases in demand, and even higher prices.

Only now does the pendulum seems to be swinging back.

Nick Wolff, broker/owner of Century 21 Wolff in White Plains, for example, said there are signs the market is slowing down.

“Inventory has increased because home sellers expected to sell their homes for as much or more than their neighbors did in the spring and summer,” he said.

“Unfortunately, due to interest rates, higher gas prices and projected higher home heating costs, buyers are becoming more cautious and wary. We are already seeing many price reductions across the board in all price ranges.”

Given the market conditions, sellers will need to price more realistically, negotiate more aggressively and realize the market will generally be flat next year compared to the past four years. But not all sellers are convinced.

Frank Yurcan of Brewster said he can’t figure out which way the market is going. “If you talk to four different Realtors you get four different estimates on how much your house is worth. The estimates aren’t even close.

“They vary as much as $50,000,” he said. In frustration, Yurcan decided to put his four-bedroom Dutch Colonial up for sale himself. The list price: $599,900.

“The only way to tell how the market is going is to see how much someone will be willing to pay,” he said.

Matt Rand, managing partner of Prudential Rand Realty’s Rockland County and Orange County operations, said, however, that both activity and prices are settling down. “Buyers are more careful, and prices are settling into a more predictable pattern.

“Two years ago, there could be wide disagreement between agents on the market value of a house. We’re not seeing that today. There is generally agreement on the value,” Rand said.

Real estate agents note that a cooling down of the market is neither an unexpected nor an undesirable change. Markets, they explain, are cyclical.

“If we have a correction or a return to more classic times, it will be a positive move for the market. It will entice buyers back to take another look,” Lindsey said.

The residential market started at a torrid pace in 2005. In Pelham, for instance, a record price was set last spring with the $2.47 million sale of a seven-bedroom, four-and-a half bath Colonial.

In the first quarter, Mercurio said, the market in Westchester and Putnam Counties had a shot at surpassing the record sales volume set in 2004. Then it cooled.

“However, by the third quarter it was fairly clear that 2005 would be posting merely second-best results, and further, that the fierce pace of sales and price increases of the past two years would ease off into 2006,” he said.

Much the same thing happened in Rockland, Rand said. But like Mercurio, Rand said there is no sign of a price bubble. “Prices aren’t going to drop next year. There just won’t be the same frenzied price of appreciation,” Rand said.

There are multiple positive factors at work. Unemployment is low, businesses are still creating new jobs and office vacancy rates are dropping slightly.

Marc Goloven, retired senior regional economist for JPMorganChase, said he expects Westchester, Rockland and Putnam counties to have continued increases in population, business expansion and new residential development, even in formerly distressed urban areas.

All three counties are benefiting from the rapid growth of small and medium size businesses in five critical economic sectors: technology, education, entertainment, tourism and healthcare. As a result, he said, the overall economy is good in the tri-county area as well as in New York City, a major driver of the suburban real estate market.

The inventory of homes on the market in many areas has increased in recent months but remains quite lean by historical standards, reflecting the longstanding excess of demand over supply.

Experts agree that the only negatives on the horizon are higher mortgage interest rates and the already high cost of housing throughout the area. Mortgage rates are creeping up in response to lenders’ expectations of inflation, and housing prices are at all time highs.

“Each quarter point of interest makes a big difference on the jumbo loans needed to finance the area’s expensive housing, and we can expect to see a slow but steady erosion of the pace of sales in 2006 as a result,” Mercurio said.

According to statistics from the New York State Association of Realtors, the median price of a house peaked at $730,000 in Westchester and $486,000 in Putnam in August. Median prices were $520,000 and $283,000 in 2002, respectively.

The September median price in Rockland County is its peak — $537,000, up from $409,000 three years ago.

Because prices are so high, large proportions of prospective homebuyers can only afford less abundant condominiums and cooperative apartments.

Mercurio said there is no evidence that prices locally have been puffed up by speculative investment activity. Rather, they are the simple product of high demand in relation to scant supply.

“Now our prices have reached a self-limiting level and will climb much more slowly in the next year or two until household incomes in the region catch up,” Mercurio said.

Although higher interest rates are a factor, Sheila Siderow, president of Siderow Kennedy Real Estate in Chappaqua, said the levels have not climbed anywhere near historically high levels. In 1980, for example, mortgage rates were as high as 18 percent.

In addition, mortgages continue to be easily obtainable, she said. As a result, she expects sales to continue to be strong in the towns where schools and good commuting are the strengths.

A recent study by the Urban Land Institute (ULI) found that higher gas prices are causing Americans to alter their driving habits and to either use or consider using public transportation if the option is available. Respondents of all ages, in all regions and all locations (urban, suburban and rural) said gas prices had caused them to make some changes in both commuting and non-commuting travel — and may be the “tipping point” that causes consumers to rethink how far they are willing to commute each day.

Siderow said sellers would have to adjust their expectations, and set prices more realistically to reflect the market.

“Sellers with less than perfect houses will need an advantage,” she added. Knowing that, Siderow Kennedy is now offering free architectural consulting to its clients. The goal is to enable prospective buyers to evaluate possible structural changes and get an idea of the ballpark costs of renovation.

But well maintained and well-priced homes will continue to sell — no matter how much the market slows.

Linda Viglietta, associate broker at Joyce Realty in New City, said some homes still draw crowds. One, for example: a three-bedroom ranch in New City with a new kitchen, two custom baths, central air, Pella windows with built in blinds and a freshly painted interior. The house, listed at $559,500, is drawing heavy interest.

Nancy Blaker Weber, an agent at Baer & McIntosh in Nyack, said demand would also be strong in areas like the river villages. “There is a limited supply of Victorian homes by the river and a great demand for them.

“Higher interest rates will obviously make some buyers a bit more cautious, but the unique community that exists here will ensure a continuous stream of interested buyers,” she said.

Arthur Scinta, associate broker at Houlihan Lawrence in Pelham, said supply is still a problem in high demand areas. The average price in Pelham is now about $950,000, up almost 15 percent over a year ago.

There are only four houses on the market in the $1 million to $2 million range, including a 786-square-foot cottage with two bedrooms and two baths. “I think this partly explains why there has been a bit of a drop-off in the number of buyers looking: there is nothing to advertise to draw them and nothing to show if they are looking,” Scinta said.

In the coming year, Mercurio predicts inventory will increase slightly but not excessively.

“Prices will inch up a little,” he said. “2006 will likely be the closest to a normal year that we’ve seen in the entire past decade.”

Real Estate Bubble Theorists No More Than Squealers

Friday, November 25th, 2005

Have you ever squirted a little kid in the back with a stream of cold water on a hot summer day? I’ve seen this throughout our neighborhood and it’s actually sadistically humorous to watch the little tykes squeal and run away from their parental tormentors.

Those who keep whining about the coming “burst” of the “real estate bubble” remind of these squealers. Sometimes I feel like the lone voice of reason crying out in the wilderness.

The real estate bubble naysayers whine about the “bubble” as if the whole national real estate market were nothing more than another over-inflated stock exchange—like the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq. Folks—it’s not. Real estate, like politics, is local and I wish those real estate journalists scaring the buyers with quotes from their stock market experts would just stop what they’re doing and consider some real facts.

Fact: The top hot real estate markets in the U.S.A. are also the top hot job markets.

Fact: Houses are where the jobs go at night.

Fact: Without enough houses in a hot job market, your housing inventory will escalate in price.

Fact: There are “pockets” of over inflated real estate

Fact: Unlike the stock market—you have to live somewhere. Whether renting or buying, there is an automatic necessity for the ownership of real estate—either by a homeowner or an investor.
There is no built-in necessity for owning stocks, thus all comparisons between the two products is moot.

In the midst of the hot markets across the country (where the squealing is the loudest and most piercing) citizens of those jurisdictions must look to the local economy to determine their risks.

In the Washington, D.C. area, the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors looks at those numbers every single year at its annual Economic Summit held at George Mason University. Unfortunately, most of the press gives it passing coverage—I think especially this year, because the economists did not fall in line with “the sky is falling” mantra heard by critics of a strong housing market.

The summit was reported on in the trade association’s latest monthly publication, The Update. “In a nutshell, you couldn’t be in a better market,” according to Dr. Stephen Fuller, Director for the Center for Regional Analysis and School of Public Policy at George Mason University. “If you’re worried about some bubble, or slow down, or something that’s evil, just put yourself in any other market,” he said. “They envy us.”

To put it bluntly folks, we’re going to have a housing problem in the future—but it’s not the bursting kind. It’s the “How can I make $60,000 a year and have to live out of the trunk of my car” kind. You see, in the Washington, D.C. area and other hot job market areas, the reason housing is climbing in value is simply because there’s not enough of it.

Dr. Fuller reports the regions surrounding Washington, D.C. have done a fantastic job of drawing jobs to the area—287,000 in the last five years. However, they have done a sorry job in providing houses for all these people. This year, there’s a deficit in housing in this region of 463,300 units. That means that while people can take jobs here, they won’t be able to live nearby to work them. They’ll have to commute in a couple of hours.

The numbers don’t get any better, Fuller says. By 2030, there will be a shortfall of housing units in the Washington, D.C. area of 716,000 units.

Okay, bubble squealers—where’s the bubble?

The vocabulary being used by journalists is leftover from when the stock market inexplicably rose in value when there was no reason but hype driving the market. Companies were raising lots of venture capital and creating products that they couldn’t sell, meaning they ate through the borrowed funds and finally burst.

In hot real estate markets, there’s no hype. There are real jobs being created by real companies, creating real products and selling them to real consumers. Real money is being made and these real companies need real employees to make it happen—local governments should wake up and realize that we need real houses to put them into as well. If you want to quell the fear—build more houses.

Now—would all the squealers please stop? You’re giving me a headache.

Mr. Carr has covered real estate since 1989. He is the author of Real Estate Investing Made Simple.

High-end real estate market still sizzling

Friday, November 25th, 2005

SAN FRANCISCO — Real estate broker Olivia Hsu Decker guided guests through an $8 million fixer-upper last weekend at an invitation-only open house in Presidio Heights, one of San Francisco’s toniest neighborhoods.

Decker just sold the house with drop-dead San Francisco Bay views to Richard and Barbara Pivnicka, developers who plan a $3 million redo before putting it back on the market next year for perhaps $15 million. Sounds audacious, given mounting evidence of a real estate slowdown amid rising interest rates and fears of a housing bubble. But the market for homes selling for $10 million or more won’t be easily pinched. Supply is tight, and demand nearly insatiable among increasingly rich corporate tycoons. “A great target market,” Barbara Pivnicka says. Ruling over this high-octane world is an elite group of agents such as Decker who’ve emerged as powerful players in some of the ritziest markets: New York, Palm Beach, Fla., Silicon Valley and San Francisco. These super-agents are skilled at closing all-cash deals hidden from public view. It’s a lucrative field. Decker earns as much as 5 percent commissions — $500,000 on a $10 million sale, money that helps maintain her two 17th-century French chateaux. In New York, Deborah Grubman of Corcoran Group is helping sell media baron Rupert Murdoch’s $27 million SoHo loft, with its own film screening room. Further uptown, Brenda Powers and Elizabeth Sample at Brown Harris Stevens are showing a $70 million apartment on three floors of the Pierre Hotel. In Silicon Valley, Mary Gullixson of Alain Pinel has Oracle CEO Larry Ellison’s $25 million estate in Atherton, with waterfalls and a Japanese teahouse. Business is booming. At least 38 homes sold for $10 million or more through September, vs. 31 homes during all of last year, and just nine in 2001, says an analysis for USA TODAY by researcher DataQuick. The number of high-end agents is harder to track. Overall, women in the late 1990s solidly took the lead in the share of real estate sales jobs. One of the most famous is Barbara Corcoran, who started her New York firm for $1,000 in 1973 and sold it in 2001 for $70 million. She’s now developing a real estate TV show. Decker, a Shanghai native expecting to sell $80 million worth of homes this year, is a star. Her rise to realty’s pinnacle from assistant front desk manager at a Hyatt hotel some 30 years ago reflects the growing clout of women at the industry’s high end. Her story also offers a rare glimpse at how some of the priciest properties change hands. Decker says clients include actress Sharon Stone, tennis ace Andre Agassi and venture-capital kingpin Tom Perkins. “Everybody wants me,” she says. She rewards favored clients with weekends at Chateau de Villette, her 17th-century palace outside Paris that figures in the best-selling whodunit, “The Da Vinci Code.” (She spent the summer conferring with Ron Howard, who is directing the book’s film adaptation starring Tom Hanks.) At the Presidio Heights house, several neighbors wandered through the three-story Beaux Arts-style home dating to 1900. They sipped white wine and nibbled hors d’oeuvres as Decker and the Pivnickas talked of restoration with an eye to modern living. Would there be six or seven bedrooms? Depends on where the media room goes. The event itself was unusual. Most wealthy clients don’t want the public to know when they’re buying and selling. They insist on flying below realty’s radar. Look, for example, at another Presidio Heights home. Former Gap CEO Mickey Drexler sold it last month after putting it on the market for $27 million. Drexler, now CEO of J. Crew in New York, remodeled the house extensively in the early 1990s. It was originally designed by architect Willis Polk, who also designed the Filoli estate in Silicon Valley’s Woodside, the Carrington mansion in the “Dynasty” TV series in the 1980s. Public documents show Drexler’s home was sold for an undisclosed sum to Jackson Presidio LLC. That corporation shares the same address as Salesforce.com’s headquarters, the software company founded in 1999 by Marc Benioff. Benioff, worth more than $800 million after Salesforce went public last year, said through a publicist that he had not “personally” bought any property. Drexler declined to comment. Privacy is another reason so many high-end sales are all-cash. Bypassing mortgages means answering fewer questions from nosy bankers. It also means filing fewer public documents with details of an ownership change. Plus, federal law limits the amount of interest deductible from income taxes to a maximum $1 million, so there’s no tax advantage to taking out a huge home loan. In Florida’s Palm Beach, 90 percent of Carole Koeppel’s sales are for cash. Koeppel, an agent with Sotheby’s International Realty, says half her listings are for $10 million or more. Sample, with the $70 million Pierre listing, agrees: “They come and sign a check, and it’s done.” In some cases, such as Murdoch’s, buyers must pay cash. The creator of the Fox News channel is selling his SoHo loft so he and wife Wendi Deng can move uptown to Laurance Rockefeller’s $44 million co-op on Fifth Avenue. The co-op’s rules forbid mortgages. The prevalence of all-cash deals also means rising interest rates are less of a factor in the luxury home market, says John Karevoll of DataQuick. Rich buyers are more likely affected by swings in the stock market, and stocks lately have been gaining ground. These days, Decker zips through a database of 20,000 potential buyers and sellers, many with net worths exceeding $50 million, that she says she assembled in the past three decades. Next, she arranges for magazine-quality property photos for glossy sales brochures and her Web site. For Perkins, the co-founder of venture-capital powerhouse Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, Decker says she spent $20,000 on marketing, including a photographer at $350 an hour. Perkins’ $20.5 million home, in a French Normandy manor style, is on top-drawer Belvedere Island, with views of San Francisco’s skyline to the south. Most of Decker’s customers are Americans. Yet, she does trade globally, aided by her ability to speak Chinese, Japanese, Italian and some French. Recently, she wore three watches on her wrist to track the time in San Francisco, New York and Paris. She came to the USA with her then-husband in 1975. They invested in modestly priced homes while Decker worked the Hyatt’s front desk. After the couple divorced, those early investments provided the start-up capital she used to go into business on her own after working for Merrill Lynch’s realty arm. She formed her current brokerage, Decker Bullock in Marin County’s Mill Valley, in 1990 with partner Bill Bullock. From the start, she pledged to deal only in homes priced at $1 million or more, a huge sum at the time. “People laughed at me,” she says. She’s been laughing all the way to the bank since. In her best year, 1999, she says she sold $120 million worth of homes after the tech boom minted scores of multi-millionaires. That helped pay for the $6 million Paris chateau and provided another $6 million to spiff up its 17 bedrooms and 21 bathrooms. Decker owns a second chateau near Aix-en-Provence, the south of France. Both chateaux are available for rent. As a child, she longed to peek through the gates of trophy homes with what she calls a “wow” factor. That means a show-stopping location, architecturally significant provenance and extraordinary details such as rare Brazilian hardwoods – or a tennis court, such as the one at Agassi’s $22 million estate in Tiburon, north of San Francisco. Such homes rarely come on the market. Murdoch admired the Rockefeller apartment, with terraces facing Central Park, for years until it became available after Rockefeller’s death last year. And it is such rarities, amid strong demand, that keeps agents busy. If there’s any market weakness in New York, says agent Sample, it is properties in the $1 million to $1.5 million range. “That’s more interest-rate driven,” she says. Sales of so-called McMansions by new-home builders such as Toll Bros. also might get hit. Toll this month warned that demand for its typical $700,000 homes is weakening. Optimism about the high end’s prospects doesn’t surprise luxury consumer expert Pam Danziger. The fabulously wealthy aren’t worried about keeping a roof over their heads. “They usually have a home already,” she says. Or several homes. Decker says the owner of her most expensive listing, a $65 million estate in her own Belvedere Island neighborhood, owns nine other homes. Trophy houses don’t sell overnight. Decker and other agents say it can take months, sometimes years, to match buyer to seller. Clients such as Murdoch and Benioff didn’t get rich by being stupid. “They earned every penny,” says Danziger. “And they’re not about to pay more than they have to.” Buying is just the start, says Adele Cygelman, editor-in-chief of Robb Report Luxury Home/Vacation Homes magazines. Costs for renovation, taxes, security and staff to maintain gardens, pools and indoor gyms run into the millions. “Trophy properties are like trophy wives,” Cygelman says in an e-mail. “Gorgeous to look at, and very high-maintenance.”